woolong.com · Physical Frontiers
Import vs local cost crossing; autonomy on the expensive-freight side.
Cheaper freight → fewer items remain Autonomous; expensive freight → more items must be made locally.

This tool shows how Mars’ dependence on imports changes as freight prices fall. For each item it compares: (1) the landed import price from Earth and (2) the local Mars manufacturing price under your assumptions. When freight is expensive, importing is prohibitive and many items are Autonomous. As freight gets cheaper, importing becomes attractive and some items shift to Trade-Preferred.

Quick Start

1) Drag the transport slider. 2) Watch which rows switch between Autonomous and Trade-Preferred. 3) Edit Earth cost or Capital mass to reflect your scenario. The chart shows the share of the basket that remains Autonomous at each freight price.

Global Inputs

Per-kg derived automatically.
Static in this model. Lower it manually to simulate tech/scale gains.
Spares, QA, training, downtime.
Presets:

CSV (no header): Name, EarthCostUSDperKg, CapitalMassKG.

Sensitivity: Transport Cost

Transport (USD/ton)
300,000
Transport (USD/kg)
300.00
Mars Multiplier (×)
5.0
Overhead (%)
20%
Reading the curve: the left side is cheap freight — fewer items remain Autonomous. The right side is expensive freight — most basics flip to Autonomous.
Y-axis: share of items that are Autonomous. X-axis: freight price (log scale).
Earth–to–Mars shipping arc with a freight price scale.
Freight slider metaphor: cheap ← → expensive.

Factory Buildout Cost (CAPEX)

Goods & Autonomy Status

Edit Item, Earth Cost, or Capital Mass. Note: the slider only changes freight. Improvements in Mars productivity are not modeled dynamically; adjust the multiplier/overhead to test scenarios.
Isometric Mars micro-factory showing local production flow vs import alternative.
Local production cell built when freight is expensive; dotted path indicates importing when freight is cheap.
Item Earth Cost ($/kg) Landed Import ($/kg) Local Mars ($/kg) Status Capital Mass (kg) Landed Capital Cost ($) Break-even Transport ($/ton) Break-even Multiplier (×)

Operating vs. Capital: “Autonomous” compares per-kg operating costs. Landed Capital Cost shows the one-time launch bill to ship the factory. You can be operating-cheaper and still defer the build if capital is tight.

Factory CAPEX vs per-kg OPEX with note that imports win when freight is cheap.
CAPEX bite today vs OPEX savings per kg; as freight falls, importing can win again.

How This Calculator Works

1) Global Inputs

Transport cost to Mars
Delivery fee per ton. The slider spans early freight (~$100M/ton) down to Starship-like values (~$300k/ton) and beyond.
Mars cost multiplier (×)
How much more expensive local manufacturing is than Earth. Lower this to simulate technology, automation, and scale improvements.
Scale & complexity overhead (%)
Extra small-market penalties (spares, QA, training, downtime) applied on top of the multiplier.

2) Columns

Landed Import ($/kg)
Earth Cost + Transport/kg
Local Mars ($/kg)
Earth Cost × Multiplier × (1 + Overhead)
Status
🟢 Autonomous (local cheaper), 🔴 Trade-Preferred (import cheaper), 🟡 within ±5% Near Break-Even
Break-even Transport
Freight price where import = local, given the current multiplier.
Break-even Multiplier
Manufacturing penalty where local = import, given the current freight.

What flips first?

Bulk, low-complexity goods (water, oxygen, methane, cement, glass) — expensive eras force local autonomy.

What flips last?

High value-density, complex goods (electronics, precision bearings, biologics) — imports stay attractive until Mars’ multiplier improves.

Does “Autonomous” equal full self-sufficiency?

It’s the economic threshold. Full independence also requires local precursors/skills. Use Capital Mass to visualize the startup cost.

What isn’t modeled dynamically?

Productivity gains on Mars. Adjust the multiplier/overhead manually to explore improved efficiency scenarios.
Smartcard with autonomy vs trade stamps.
Bebop-flavored permit: “Autonomous (High Freight)” vs “Trade-Preferred (Low Freight)”.